January 6, 2026
Rates across the curve have been quite stable over the past sixty days, with a slight decrease in very short term rates and a slight upward move in the 10 year rate. Over 2025 the 10 year rate started at 4.57% and ended the year at 4.18% while the one year note started the year at 4.17% and ended the year at 3.48%. The Federal Reserve reduced rates at the December meeting and is anticipated to reduce rates once or twice in 2026. Of course, a LOT can happen in 2026 that will dictate where rates go. By all accounts, the economy is expected to continue growing and building on the strong 2025 4th quarter. The question is if that growth can occur without reigniting inflation. Tariffs are a non-issue and the dollar remains generally weaker.